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Analysts bullish about gold, silver prices, but bearish about platinum, palladium
Independent precious metals authority the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) has released its ‘2025 Annual Precious Metals Forecast Survey’, which shows bullish price forecasts for gold and silver.
The survey provides insights into the expected direction of gold, silver, platinum and palladium prices for this year, as well as analysts’ individual forecasts and commentaries.
he 30 analysts in this year’s survey submitted their forecasts by close of business on January 13, providing the opportunity to observe eight days of trading before confirming their contributions.
The analysts, collectively, expect gold to outperform 2024 with an average price of $2 736.69/oz – 14.7% higher than the average price for 2024 ($2 386.20/oz), and just $51 lower than the record gold price for 2024.
A wide forecast trading range, however, indicates analysts are expecting significant price volatility.
Moreover, no analyst has forecast an average price above $3 000/oz.
The most bullish was Keisuke (Bill) Okui of Sumitomo, with an average forecast of $2 925/oz; while the most bearish was Robin Bhar of Robin Bhar Metals Consulting, with an average forecast of $2 500/oz.
SILVER
Analysts expect silver to follow gold’s bullish path this year, with an average forecast price of $32.86/oz, 16% greater than the average price in 2024.
The most bullish was Nicky Shiels of MKS PAMP, with an average forecast of $36.50/oz, while the most bearish was Nicholas Frappell of ABC Refinery, with an average forecast of $28.25/oz.
The forecasts for platinum reveal low expectations, with an average price predicted by the analysts of $1 021.64/oz – just $65 greater than the actual price average for 2024, indicating a similarly bearish sentiment to the 2024 forecast.
The most bullish predictions came from Julia Du of ICBC Standard Bank and Joni Teves of UBS, with a consensus average forecast of $1 100/oz; while the most bearish came from Kieran Tompkins of Capital Economics, with an average forecast of $920/oz.
PALLADIUM
Analysts also raised concern of oversupply and weak demand growth for palladium, with an average forecast of $991/oz – barely above the actual average for 2024 of $983/oz, which itself was a large drop from the 2023 average price of $1 337.39/oz.
The most bullish was Joni Teves of UBS, with an average forecast of $1 090/oz; while the most bearish was Rhona O’Connell of Stonex Financial, with an average forecast of $906/oz.
KEY DRIVERS
Analysts were asked to identify their top three drivers for the price of gold this year, with the top three drivers being US Fed policy (28%), central bank demand (21%) and geopolitical risks or uncertainty (15%).
As identified by the analysts, the Fed’s activity this year could determine gold’s fortunes.
If the Fed raises interest rates, this could put downward pressure on gold prices. On the other hand, if rates are lowered or if the Fed maintains a dovish stance to support economic growth, it could make gold more appealing as an alternative investment, potentially driving prices higher.
If the Fed signals concerns about rising inflation and takes action to combat it, gold prices could rise as investors seek protection from currency devaluation.
If the Fed’s policies are perceived as too loose and inflation expectations rise, gold may also benefit, analysts posit.
Central bank demand is identified as the second-most important driver for gold this year. Central bank buying significantly increases demand, positively impacts market sentiment, and speculative activity further drives up prices.
Regarding geopolitical instability as a driver, historically, in troubled times, gold becomes even more valuable.
Also, in broader commentary, there were 33 mentions of US President Donald Trump, citing concerns over geopolitical instability, trade policies and relations, and how his tenure may result in gold continuing to uphold its reputation as a safe-haven asset.
Source: https://www.miningweekly.com/