Gold Price Will Continue to Surpass Fresh Record in H2, Say Analysts
Wed July 17 2024
LBMA has conducted a brief review of 14 professional analysts’ forecasts for the price of gold during the second half of 2024. This ‘snapshot’ supplements the more extensive annual survey published by LBMA in early February covering price forecasts for the four major precious metals.
Without exception, all the analysts who responded are predicting that the gold price will trade higher during H2 2024 than the record price of $2480.25 achieved today, 17 July 2024 (PM auction). An average of forecasts implies the gold price may touch $2547. Again, without exception, all analysts believe the price will come off as 2024 comes to a close. Average of year-end forecasts: $2395, some 6.0% below the anticipated average high.
It is, however, clear that many analysts were surprised by the strength of gold through the first half of this year with the original full year average price (from the Survey published in early February) coming in at $2059, some 7.1% below the actual average for the first six months of the year of $2205, and 12.5% below the full year average now predicted.
LBMA Gold Price 2024: 2 Jan - $2074.90. 28 Jun - $2330.90
High (record) 17 July - $2470.35. Low 14 Feb - $1985.10. Average $2205.25
Analysts’ Full Year Forecasts as at 1 Feb 2024
Highest - $2405. Lowest - $1781. Predicted 2024 full year average - $2059
Analysts’ Full Year ‘Snapshot’ Forecasts as at 16 Jul 2024
Highest - $2650. Lowest - $1985. End-of-Year Highest - $2600 / Lowest $2160
Revised predicted full year average - $2317
The three key drivers of the gold price through H2 2024 were cited as US Federal Reserve interest rates, Geopolitical Risk and Central Bank purchases.
Source: https://www.lbma.org.uk/