Page 36 - Bullion World Volume 3 Issue 10 October 2023

Bullion World | Volume 3 | Issue 10 | October 2023

in China & Europe wafts over to of a higher real rates, stronger US$ 2024 in US$-terms; we are already
the US. Gold has re-rated into this and a more restrictive Fed into getting the ‘previews’ in other cross
new $1,800 to $1,900 an ounce incrementally softening US data, currency terms as Precious Metals
range which is a fairer range for a erodes the soft landing narrative. continue to be one of the safer places
new regime shift in the Fed’s “higher We retain our 2023 average price to hide out in as late cycle risks rise
for longer” tone. However bullish forecast of $1930 for but lift our 2024 into 2024.
headline risk is still rising for Gold in forecast to $1970/oz. Gold will more
the medium term as the combination likely than not break all-time-highs in

Since we remain mildly constructive and Europe on industrial demand in economic outlook will cause auto
Gold into 2024, we believe the 2024. However, investment demand production to fall and the impact on
investment case for both Silver & – ranging from physical retail sector demand balance trumps supply-side
Platinum becomes attractive, which to institutional demand – will remain risks stemming from ongoing Eskom
will offset some of the headwinds strong as the US enters a contentious loadshedding (and its potential to
stemming from recessionary forces election cycle and Silver wins over curb refined output) and investment
that will negatively impact auto consumer demand scouting for a demand. Overall, the white metals will
demand for Platinum and industrial cheaper proxy to Gold as a hedge earn upside potential (eg: price target
demand for both metals. Silvers against recession and stagflationary expectations of $30/oz and $1200+
strong industrial footprint in 2023 risks. Thus Silvers fundamental deficit respectively) only after the global
(where demand likely expanded to will shrink in 2024 and we forecast recession and once policymakers
an all-time-high of almost 580mn oz, an average price of $24/oz, but with respond with either fiscal and
keeping the fundamental balance elevated downside risks. Similarly, monetary support to stimulate
in a deficit), will likely have peaked, Platinum’s 2024 average forecast is recoveries in economies.
as the US joins the drag from China $1050/oz as the expected weaker

Developing, Driving and

Connecting ASEAN’s Bullion Market

The SBMA is the principal market development agency for the precious metals trade in
Singapore.

Our mission is to develop Singapore as ASEAN’s precious metals trading hub.
As the first touch point between governmental/regulatory bodies and market
participants, we maintain good links and relationships with fellow associations in ASEAN
countries and beyond, further connecting our market participants through networking
events and outgoing business missions to these countries.

We are also a source of industry knowledge and information, and can share best
practices and industry know-how.

For direct enquiries, please email
Albert Cheng, CEO Margaret Wong, Business Manager
albert.cheng@sbma.org.sg margaret.wong@sbma.org.sg
For more information, please visit our website at www.sbma.org.sg

Singapore Bullion Market Association
9 Raffles Place, Level 58, Republic Plaza, Singapore 048619, Telephone: +65 6823 1301
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