Page 26 - Bullion World Volume 02 Issue 08 August 2022

Bullion World | Volume 2 | Issue 08 | August 2022

Gold Price outlook gold bonds due to incentives. Gold ETFs, launched in
2007 in India, grew well till 2012 to almost 40 tonnes,
Mr Debajit Saha, Lead Analyst- then lost its sheen between 2013 till 2020 only to
India and the Middle East, raise phenomenally again to 40 tonnes during the
Refinitiv covid period. Gold Jewellery has enormous emotional
Globally we are struggling with value but compares poorly as an investment option.
inflation. In my view, inflation is Gold financialisation needs actions in terms of treating
not going to cool down any soon. gold as currency, eradicating barriers of taxation
Historically, every high inflation and movement and coming out with product-driven
period is followed by a recession. innovations along the value chain. New institutions
Are we staring at a recession? Maybe. If that is the such as IIBX and domestic gold spot exchanges
case, gold has a useful role to play. provide a great opportunity for the creation of an
integrated ecosystem bringing in efficiency and
If we look at some of the economic indicators, we fungibility. On price outlook, recessionary concerns
see improvement in US employment; however, the could limit the downside in gold prices, while a U-turn
manufacturing index is deteriorating, especially after on hawkish stance could push gold higher.
the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Gold vs US 10-year yield http://goldconference.in/presentation/Day1/Chirag_
curve has turned positive. Mehta.pdf

Coming to price, the Gold price has been on the Special address by
upswing from 2016 until recently. For this upmove,
there has to be a healthy correction, which in my view Mr V S Sundaresan, Executive Director, Securities
is 50% retracement. I expect gold to gradually correct & Exchange Board of India (SEBI)
towards US$ 1550 per TO soon. Of course, no market For more details refer page number 18
moves in a straight line, there may be a temporary
upmove. I see the gold market consolidating between Discussion- India - UAE CEPA: Opportunities for
US$ 1850 and US$ 1550 per TO in the next year. Precious Metals Sector

I am not bullish on silver. It is likely to consolidate in Moderator: Mr Sadi Ahmad – SAM PRECIOUS
US$18 – US$ 21 per TO range. It may spike lower to METALS
US$ 16 per TO also, briefly.
http://goldconference.in/presentation/Day1/ Panellists:
Debajit_Saha.pdf Mr Sanjeev Dutta, Executive Director –
Commodities & Financial Services DMCC
Mr Chirag Mehta, CIO, Quantum Mr Mohammed Ayyob – General Manager
AMC Pvt Ltd on Gold in SAM PRECIOUS METALS
Investment Portfolio-An India Mr Pramod Mohan – Managing Director
Perspective: FinMet Pte Ltd
As of March 2022, the total Mr Chirag Thakkar- Amrapali Industries
household assets of Indians are Mr Kinjal Shah- RJC
estimated at USD10.7 trillion, 15%
Mr Harish Pawani, Director, Peekay Intermark Pvt. Ltd
is into gold (Source: Jefferies).
Gold has been an excellent portfolio diversifier in India,
Mr Sadi Ahmad – SAM
based on the analysis of data on annual returns from
PRECIOUS METALS
equity and gold between 1990 and 2022 (Source:
Significant events like the
Bloomberg). Gold has been an excellent store of
launch of IIBX in India and the
value. It has given an average nominal return of 11%
announcement of the new policy
pa during the high inflation period (inflation >6%) and
on responsible sourcing involving
7% pa during the low inflation period (<6%). In recent
refiners and importers in the UAE
times, physical investments in gold coins and bars
by the UAE Ministry of Economy
are giving way to paper products such as Sovereign
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