Page 16 - Bullion World Volume 3 Issue 1 2023

Bullion World | Volume 3 | Issue 1 | January 2023

Gold and Silver Price

Outlook 2023

Mr Anuj Gupta, Vice President, Research & Product, IIFL Securities

For the next year we are expecting that gold and silver may trade
northwards and may test new high levels.

Gold may test INR 58000 to INR its last monetary policy meeting
60,000 /10 grms and Silver May test for 2022, the Federal Reserve
INR 75000 to INR 80,000 / Kg on forecasted the Fed Funds rate
MCX in the Year 2023. peaking above 5% in 2023. The
central bank's updated forecast
In the calendar year 2022, we saw capped a year that saw the most
a recovery in Gold and silver in the aggressive tightening cycle since
fourth quarter. Recovery came from 1981 as inflation rose to more than
the demand from the central bank 40-year high.
and also expectation of less hawkish
Mr Anuj Gupta
instances in next year. For the next While the Federal Reserve continues
year, we are expecting that gold and to take a firm stance on inflation,
silver may rise again in domestic and economists note that the central 16% from 2021. As silver is precious
in international markets. bank is closer to the end of its cum industrial metal, the demand
tightening cycle, which could be from the physical side plays an
On MCX, gold increased by 13.64% good for gold. Bank of America important role for the silver price
and is currently trading at INR 54660 looks for the Federal Reserve to end trend. Physical investment demand
levels, while in the international its tightening cycle in March and increased by 18% as compared
market it corrected by 1.74% and sees the first rate cut by the end of to last year and expected to rise
trading at $1797 per ounce. Silver 2023 and it is also expecting that 329 million ounces. The demand
after negative close in the year 2021, the Federal bank may start cutting from retail investors' side had also
recovered in 2022 and traded higher interest rates by the end of the year been significant in the year 2022.
by 10.20% at INR 69050 levels. We 2023. Demand for jewellery, silverware
observed in the year 2022 that the increased by 29% (235 million
demand for precious metals always The Federal Reserve sees core ounce) and 72% (73 million ounce)
shone in any situation, it might be inflation rising 3.5% in 2023, which respectively. Demand for coins was
inflation, geopolitical tension, higher is relatively in line with consensus also at record levels almost 100%.
crude oil prices and higher interest estimates ranging between 3% and Industrial demand for silver was at a
rates. 4%. This would also help the central record in 2022, reaching 539 million
bank not to increase interest rates ounces. The automotive sector also
For the next year we are expecting but also give indication of starting to contributed to additional demand,
that gold and silver may trade cut interest rates. particularly the electrification of
northwards and may test new high vehicles. India is responsible for at
levels. The important thing is that For silver, the global silver demand least half of each category.
the peak out of interest rates give is expected to hit a new record of Overcome from the covid of the
support to the yellow metals. In 1.21 billion ounces this year, rising Chinese economy will be positive for

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