Page 26 - Bullion World Volume 02 Issue 08 September 2022
P. 26

Bullion World | Volume 2 | Issue 09 | September 2022


           Comex Inventories Plummet -


           Is A 'Vault-Run' Underway?



           Source: SchiffGold



           Summary                                            inventory surge during the Ukraine/Russia crisis to
           While Comex deliveries have been very elevated for   replenish stock.
           over two years, most of the metal was going back and
           forth within the Comex vaults.                     However, that surge has been completely undone and
                                                              inventories are now well below where they were before
                                                              May, though well above pre-COVID levels. Since May
                                                              2022, total inventories are down 17.7% and down
                                                              24.9% since February 2021. The past few months have
                                                              seen a major acceleration of gold leaving the Comex.
                                                              This is shown below with the big spike down on the
                                                              right side.




           The past few months have seen a major acceleration
           of gold leaving the Comex.


           Unlike gold, silver has not yet started leaving the
           Comex system in droves, but the amount of Registered
           has fallen off a cliff.


           Gold and silver deliveries on the Comex have surged   Silver is also seeing a major change in inventory.
           since March 2020. While delivery volume in 2021 and   Unlike gold, the metal has not yet started leaving the
           2022 are below the massive amount seen in 2020,    Comex system in droves, but the amount of Registered
           overall volume is very elevated compared to pre-   has fallen off a cliff (Registered is metal available for
           COVID levels.                                      delivery). Silver Registered is down 41% since March
                                                              15, 2022, and down 65.7% since Feb 4, 2021, which
           This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the   was the start of the Reddit Silver Squeeze last year.
           Comex/CME futures exchange. The charts and tables
           below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory   This is a massive drawdown in metal available for
           data at the Comex to show the physical movement of   delivery. For now, the metal is staying in the Comex
           metal into and out of Comex vaults.                vaults, but if gold is a leading indicator, metal might
                                                              start leaving Eligible in a big way. As can be seen

           Current Trends                                     below, the amount of Registered has fallen to 16.6%,
           While Comex deliveries have been very elevated for   down from 40% in 2020. This is the lowest ratio since
           over two years, most of the metal was going back and   June 2017.
           forth within the Comex vaults. There was not a major
           extraction of metal. In fact, at the beginning of COVID,
           a dislocation in the market brought a massive surge of
           inventory into Comex gold vaults (see figure below),
           even while delivery volume was breaking records.


           In 2021, gold did start physically moving out of the
           vault, albeit from much higher stock levels. After a
           decent amount was extracted, there was then an



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