China's Silver Imports Increase, Exports Decline in September Amid Price Ratios and Policy Shifts

Wed Oct 21 2026

According to data from China Customs, China's exports of 99.99% unwrought silver totaled 309.77 mt in September 2026, down 23.7% MoM. Cumulative exports in January-September reached 3,341.28 mt, down 8.2% YoY. On the import side, imports of 99.99% unwrought silver came to 114.93 mt in September, up 73.5% MoM. Cumulative silver ingot imports in 2026 reached 1,066.32 mt.

China Silver Import and Export Analysis for September: Exports Pull Back MoM, Price Ratios Drive a Surge in Imports, and Mine-Side Growth Is Inflated According to data from China Customs, China's exports of 99.99% unwrought silver totaled 309.77 mt in September 2026, down 23.7% MoM. Cumulative exports in January-September reached 3,341.28 mt, down 8.2% YoY. On the import side, imports of 99.99% unwrought silver came to 114.93 mt in September, up 73.5% MoM. Cumulative silver ingot imports in 2026 reached 1,066.32 mt.

On the import side, after the silver import price ratio opened up in Q1 this year, market attention to the ratio has remained high, with imports recorded in almost every month. More import opportunities emerged from late August to mid-September, driving a MoM surge in September imports. As a result, the Hong Kong premium against LBMA fluctuated between a discount of 15¢/oz and par, and showed an upward trend toward a premium.

On the export side, processing trade exports this year edged down compared with last year. Feedback from smelters indicates that this was mainly due to weak buying interest from Hong Kong and unfavorable price ratios for processing trade exports. Under the same conditions, enterprises preferred domestic trade sales, so normal monthly export volumes this year were mostly concentrated in April-August.

Overall, bullish sentiment in China's precious metals market has been strong this year, and seasonal consumption has been relatively good. The domestic and overseas price ratios are expected to have a high probability of consolidating.

Looking at silver concentrate import data, imports of silver ore and concentrates totaled 268,639.57 mt in September, with cumulative imports up 40% YoY. This was mainly driven by a substantial increase in lead concentrate imports, most of

which were declared as silver concentrates. The import growth mainly came from Russia and Peru.

However, from the perspective of actual domestic silver output, China's cumulative silver ingot production in January-September 2026 was 14,594.3 mt, up only 4.2% YoY. This indicates that although the mine-side import data showed significant growth, the actual silver content was low, making it difficult to generate effective supply feedback at the smelting stage. In terms of import trade mode, processing trade with imported materials accounted for only 34%, while Ordinary Trade accounted for as much as 52%, further confirming that the import structure remains dominated by lead concentrates rather than high-silver-content ore.

India's Silver Import Policy Shift: Exports Plunge, Channels Resume, and Funding Pressure Intensifies

Data from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department shows that Hong Kong's cumulative silver ingot exports in January-August 2026 totaled 2,597 mt, down 25.3% YoY. Of this, exports to India were only 377 mt, down 70.9% YoY.

After India raised import tariffs on silver ingots and related products in May, Hong Kong's total silver ingot exports to India from April to July 2026 were only 51.6 mt. It was not until August 2026, after India implemented a silver import licensing system, that about 400 mt of licenses were approved, marking India's first resumption of imports in six months.

The new regulation requires each batch of imported goods to be accompanied by an official certificate of origin issued by the government of the country of origin, resulting in significant delays in customs clearance cycles.

In addition, the preferential channel between India and the UAE under the CEPA framework deserves attention: under the agreement, India has committed to gradually reducing the import tariff on silver from 10% to zero within 10 years, and as of May 2026, the preferential rate was approximately 7%. Against the backdrop of the general tariff rising to 15%, imports transshipped via the UAE offer a certain tariff arbitrage opportunity, but the rules of origin must be satisfied.

Looking at the latest monthly data, Hong Kong exported 786.47 mt of silver ingots in August 2026, of which 263 mt went to India and 131 mt to the UAE, indicating that the Indian import channel is gradually recovering and that the UAE transshipment route is beginning to take shape.

It is worth noting that in October, the Indian government confirmed that banks and designated agencies importing gold, silver, and platinum will no longer enjoy the 3% IGST (Integrated Goods and Services Tax) exemption. The new rule does not directly add a permanent tax burden, but the tax must be paid upfront at the time of import, which will increase importers' short-term financing needs and working capital occupation. The exemption policy expired on March 31 and was not renewed, and some importers have already begun paying the tax over the past few months.

As India's peak gold consumption season kicks off with the festive period starting in mid-October, the financial pressure on importers will further intensify. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

Source: https://news.metal.com/