China’s 2025 gold purchases likely 10X higher than the official 25 tons, real total reserve tops 5,000 tons – SocGen
Tue Nov 25 2025
China’s off-the-books gold purchases are ten times higher than the official numbers, and the Asian giant’s true reserves are second only to those of the United States, according to a new report by El Pais.
“The price of gold is hitting record highs, and according to market experts, China is one of the main unseen players behind this unstoppable surge; for some, the most prominent,” wrote Inma Bonet and Guillermo Abril in the Spanish daily. “The precious metal has appreciated by more than 40% in 2025, reaching $4,380 per ounce in October, an absolute record — although it has retreated in recent weeks — amid a growing appetite among central banks to bolster their reserves with assets that are considered safe.”
“Despite this being a global trend, several analysts point particularly strongly to Beijing: they agree that the Asian giant appears to be acquiring far greater volumes of gold than it publicly declares, and that this additional demand, which goes unreported, is acting as one of the determining factors in the biggest gold rally in decades,” they said.
Bonet and Abril note that independent reports of gold flows are very different from the official statements of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). “The discrepancies in the figures, echoed by advisers at various international investment banks, fuel widespread suspicion that a significant portion of Chinese purchases goes unreported, part of a strategy to protect itself against geopolitical risks and reduce its dependence on the U.S. dollar and assets at a time of increasing international fragmentation,” they said.
Michael Haigh, global head of commodity research at Société Générale, said accumulating gold “is a way to have security to protect your currency.” He said China’s gold acquisition strategy begins not long after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – one of the world’s leading gold producers – with Western governments freezing Russian gold, dollars and other assets abroad.
“Countries that wouldn’t like to see measures taken against them have started to worry, and they want to move their gold back to where they are,” Haigh said, noting that the election of President Trump has accelerated this process. “There has been a desire to move away from U.S. assets because these could also be confiscated,” he said.
According to the official data from the PBOC, China has purchased gold for 12 consecutive months, and its 2,304 tons of bullion now represent 8% of its total foreign reserves as of the end of October, giving it the world’s sixth-largest sovereign gold reserve.
Bruce Ikemizu, director of the Japan Bullion Wholesale Market Association (JBMA), believes the official data is way underreporting the true scale of China’s holdings.
“[T]he PBOC’s total reserves are more than double [the reported amount]; they are around 5,000 tons,” he told El Pais. If true, this would move China into second place, and would bring reserves much closer to the United States’ 8,133 tons. The PBOC has been “cutting its position in dollars and increasing its gold purchases” for months, Ikemizu said, which represents a “reorganization of its reserve portfolio” to depend less on the U.S. currency.
Société Générale’s estimates, based on the contrast between bullion imports, domestic production, and official reserves, that Beijing’s true gold purchases may have increased 10 times more than the PBOC figures – by 250 tons rather than 25. The French bank’s analysis is based on UK gold exports, which are one of the most reliable indicators of physical flows. This metric indicates that China has added more than 1,080 tons of gold to its reserves since mid-2022.
“This hasn’t been through one-off purchases, but rather through a steady and sustained accumulation,” Bonet and Abril wrote. “According to their calculations, Beijing acquires an average of 33 tons per month during periods of activity, a pace moderate enough not to destabilize a market extremely sensitive to large transactions.”
They added that at this rate, the country would need nearly ten years for gold to reach 20% of its international reserves.
Adrian Ash, research director at London-based BullionVault, said what’s surprising is that China has continued to report its gold purchases this year despite record-high prices – even though it’s “ultimately impossible” to know the true amount.
“There were periods when it didn’t report changes in its reserves, but this time it did, even if it’s only a ton,” he said. “The message to the public is clear: buying gold is a good idea.”
Ash said all of this represents the emergence of a geopolitical scenario dominated by “fear and mistrust” between nations, noting that Russia has paid for shipments of kamikaze drones from Iran with gold bullion. “It’s a very useful asset in times of civil crisis,” he said, adding that when countries as different as India and Poland are ramping up their gold reserves, it’s not a good sign for global stability.
“We live in a multipolar world,” Ikemizu said, and while the U.S. dollar remains the de facto global reserve currency, countries are looking for other safe havens.
“What will you trust?” Ikemizu asks. “The Russian ruble? The euro or the Japanese yen, which are, in a way, part of that Western world?” Ikemizu asked. “The only currency they can trust now is gold.”
Analysts insist it’s not a bubble. Haigh said Société Générale is predicting gold will break through $5,000 per ounce in a “sustained long-term climb” as the PBOC and other central banks look to avoid overheating the market and driving prices even higher.
“It’s a widespread trend of people diversifying,” Haigh said. “We live in a different world, don’t we?”
Source: https://www.kitco.com/