Here’s where Deutsche Bank’s analysis sees fair value for gold prices

Mon Aug 03 2026

Deutsche Bank told clients in a note on Monday that gold remains in an "explosive phase" of price behavior that began in August 2024, and its analysis continues to point to fair value well above current levels by year-end.

Research analyst Michael Hsueh explained that a statistical measure indicates the current episode is ongoing, and is only one of five to appear in data going back to 1975. With gold still in this phase, the analyst asks whether it should decline further, approaching the question from three angles.

First, Deutsche Bank said adjusting gold-to-commodity relative price ratios for long-term growth rates, indexed to a 1986 reference point, implies downside toward $2,600 an ounce.

Second, regressing gold prices on the BSADF test statistic suggests both the upward extension and downward correction are "muted in this episode," with gold potentially having bottomed around $3,900 rather than extending toward the regression-implied $3,700.

Third, the firm said gold "has closed the gap to fair value." Rolling back its model adjustments for excess official demand and real rate convexity, Deutsche Bank still sees fair value likely registering around $4,700 an ounce by year-end, above its $4,600 fourth-quarter forecast, which it maintained on that basis.

The bank noted the analysis builds on work by the Bank for International Settlements, which described bubble conditions beginning in August 2024. While the BSADF statistic has moderated from a peak of 3.3 to 1.3, Deutsche Bank said it remains above its 95% critical value, confirming the explosive phase persists.

Source: https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/