Bank of Taiwan flags competing forces in gold outlook this week

Tue July 28 2026

Bank of Taiwan expects international gold prices to face competing pressures this week as the precious metals market continues to adjust.

Gold has traded within a range since late June, hovering around NT$132,481 (US$4,100) per troy ounce, or 31.1 grams, at the time of writing. The bank said gold prices this week will be influenced by Middle East tensions, oil-driven inflation concerns, and the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, according to UDN Money.

Gold could test the previous low of around US$3,950 per troy ounce if oil prices remain above US$100 per barrel, the bank said. A more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, or a more cautious approach toward interest rate cuts than markets expect, could also weigh on gold.

The bank’s Precious Metals Department said markets generally expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting later this week. However, with oil prices testing the US$100-per-barrel level and the US labor market remaining resilient, the Fed’s statement and comments from officials could signal a more hawkish outlook.

The bank said a pause in US military action against Iran ahead of the Fed meeting could help ease concerns over renewed inflationary pressure, lower oil prices, and support gold. If gold holds above the key US$4,000 level, prices are likely to consolidate between US$3,950 and US$4,150 before attempting another move higher.

Factors supporting gold prices include China’s physical gold purchases exceeding market expectations, US inflation indicators such as the latest consumer price index and producer price index remaining under control, and gold’s long-term upward trend remaining intact.

Factors weighing on gold include continued selling by Russia’s central bank in recent months, higher oil prices linked to US-Iran tensions, and resistance from medium- and long-term moving averages, the bank said.

Source: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw